Earnings and Analysts

erwinmark · Oct 22, 2009

Some of these analysts need to get their heads out of there asses, along with many of the people buying company stocks?

Case in point Merck beats estimates by 10 cents, rev. up, etc. etc. the stock goes down, and is trading at less than 10 times earnings. WTF is with that?

Fifth Third bank, misses estimates, says they don't have a clue as to how much more money they will loose, etc. etc. stock is up 50 cents a share.

I own both, and feel like I don't have a clue!!

SpreadDestroyerr · Oct 22, 2009

It's all a scam.... get short before they decide to pull the rug out again^<<^

tiznow · Oct 22, 2009

who knows on the day to day stuff but i'd sell both

problem for merck and many big pharma in general is expiring patents and not enough in the pipeline to make up for it

and generally speaking on the bigger cap names

we rallied from march low predicting what's coming out now...we will fall in the coming months/year on the coming doom....stocks think and move ahead of the data....generally speaking they are looking 6 months out

erwinmark · Oct 22, 2009

Interesting twist yesterday, Stryker which has been a great American growth story for years, was bitching about how easy big pharma is getting off under the new OB health care plan while for a small industry medical device makers are getting screwed.

I believe Merck might have the brightest future of any company, these guys make money and pay a very generous dividend. Schering-Plough and Merck will be quite a combo moving forward.

Interesting stock now is moving up, after shaking out weak money.

tiznow · Oct 22, 2009

think generics the way to play the drug space long term

like i said lot of big patents expiring in the coming years

kicked myself hard over RDY.....was eyeing back when the shit was going down back at 8....its 20 now....so not time to buy now but one to keep an eye on for a big dip of the doom and gloom comes as i think it will....

teva will likely continue to be a winner...but again would want cheaper

good luck with merck but think it will continue to be dead money as its been for a while now

erwinmark · Oct 22, 2009

Generics are a tough gig overtime, you can make money on them from time to time, but every few years they exhaust new drugs for which they can copy and then the stocks drop like rocks. Perigo (PRGO) is another, the went from 6 to 40, then back to 20 now in 30's, but in a year or two they will stop growing and back to 10.

tiznow · Oct 22, 2009

i agree (well not sure PRGO going back to 10....it dropped to 20 due to the overall market carnage) but the two i like for reasons beyond just generics

RDY indian....so got cheap smart labor.....

TEVA....they have the most expertise (dare i say the J word on this forum LOL) of all the generics to work with the biological type drugs rather than just general organic chemistry type things that most generics deal with......

erwinmark · Nov 18, 2009

MRK hit new high today, looks to be on a run to 40, I guess they just wanted to get merger over at a lower price. Good solid dividend and earnings stream.